2024/25 Europa League: Preview And Predictions

With Europe’s secondary competition commencing last night, it only feels right to do a preview and prediction.

The Europa League as we know it has changed, as the competition now features 36 teams, up from 32, and the structure has been altered to resemble the revamped Champions League. The old format of four teams in eight groups for the group stage has been scrapped in favor of a new league phase where each club will compete in eight matches, which is two more than the previous format. The teams will be ranked in a unified 36-team table.

The 36 teams visible in the competition on the first match day will be the sole participants in the 2024-25 edition. Yes, it is true that Champions League teams will no longer have a safety net, so Atalanta will not be able to protect their title.

Finishing in the top eight ensures direct entry into the last 16, while teams ranking between ninth and 24th will compete in the playoffs for a chance to advance to the knockout stage with the top eight teams.

If you finish below 25th, you are eliminated from European competition for the season after losing in the playoffs. Despite the lack of teams relegated from the Champions League, which may reduce the appeal of the Europa League knockout stage for some, it is important to note that many top clubs are still competing.

Some individuals will draw the most attention. Manchester United clearly stand out from the crowd and Tottenham, their domestic competitors, are considered as a powerhouse in this league. Ajax are the European mainstays, while Athletic Club and Real Sociedad will be representing the Basque region as they aim to continue the trend of La Liga teams (particularly Sevilla) ruling this competition. In Serie A, Roma and Lazio are fierce rivals, while Eintracht Frankfurt and Hoffenheim, winners of the 2022 Europa League, will be representing the Bundesliga. Lyon and Nice have secured their spots from Ligue 1.

Using Opta analyst, we will now see who the favourites are for the title.

Winner:

Porto

It may come as a shock to some, but according to the Opta supercomputer, Porto (17.8%) have been designated as the frontrunners to clinch the Europa League title in the 2024-25 season.

Porto has a strong connection to this tournament, as they claimed victory in with José Mourinho at the helm (back when it was known as the Uefa Cup) and again in with André Villas-Boas, who currently serves as their president.

Porto are the sole Portuguese team that has emerged victorious in the Uefa Cup/Europa League, with just five other teams in Europe having achieved this feat multiple times.

They have not been consistent participants in European competitions for some time now; this marks their return after a three-year absence since the 2017-18 season, where they made it to the Round of 16 in the Europa League. They have only reached the quarter-finals in Europe twice since 2000.

Who else will go far in the tournament ?

Athletic Club of Bilbao, ranked second behind Porto, emerged as the winners in 10.9% of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer. Athletic has never emerged victorious in this tournament, despite making it to the final in the years 1977 and 2012.

Tottenham is also seen as one of the top contenders in the tournament. In Opta’s simulations, Ange Postecoglou’s team makes it to the end in 8.6% of the time, showing they have a higher chance than Slavia to reach the final 16 with a probability of 81.0%.

Roma are predicted to win their second European trophy in three years in 8.2% of the scenarios. However, the Giallorossi have experienced a disappointing beginning to the season in their home country, as their streak of without a victory in the first four games led to the dismissal of their head coach, Daniele De Rossi. Ivan Juric is currently leading the team and secured his first victory in charge on the weekend, defeating Udinese 3-0.

Manchester United are unexpectedly ranked as the sixth most likely team to win the trophy (7.1%). The Red Devils arguably has the most powerful squad in the competition in terms of raw talent, and very likely the priciest as well. Erik ten Hag’s team, however, can be unpredictable as they are known to alternate between moments of brilliance and inconsistency.

Final Table Prediction